Wholesale Stock ABM — Logistics Dashboard

Runs

Scenario

From Jul/2026 every distributor aims for 10% less stock relative to expected sales — the plan's question. Ranking certified (AB-1, 100% of paired seeds); the size is not.

Horizon

Jul/2026–Jun/2031. Demand ahead is resampled from 34 years of actual monthly sales growth (12-month blocks).

Stock cover vs today

0.90×

1.00 = the cover distributors have held (≈1.32 months of expected sales). Applies from Jul/2026.

Supplier lead time

1.00 mo

Default 1 month: ISM Report On Business (Oct 2015), 28 days for MRO supplies.

Supply disruption

Off

Lead time rises for a stretch, as in 2021–22.

Demand shock

Replays the shape of an actual episode from the Census series, starting Jan/2027.

Cost of carrying stock (per year)

20%

Capital, storage, insurance, shrink. 20–30% of stock value is the usual rule of thumb; your finance team's number is better.

Your monthly sales ($M, optional)

Scales the money figures to one company of your size. Sector dynamics, illustrative — your own data is what a pilot uses.

Adjust the settings and click Run.